The situation in South Kirghizstan is currently a source of concern to many. Troubles already left over 100 dead, about 1.500 wounded and triggered a mass exodus of ethnic Uzbek from Kyrgyzstan (official sources set the toll to about 80.000 displaced people, but unofficial sources released much higher figures ranging from 200.000 to 300.000). In order to quell the unrest, the Kirghiz provisional government has officially asked Russian troops to be deployed (somethning still refused by Moscow). However, should the government fail to stabilize the situation in the country, the issue of foreign intervention (and more especially of Russian military intervention) would come up again on the table.
Old hatreds, unusual unrest
Osh has been for some times the theatre of bloody ethnic riots mainly directed against the Uzbek population of the city. Many Uzbek already fled the country, while those still in the city barricaded so to avoid death by the hand of thugs, shunning any movement even to seek medical care or provisions. Several fires have reportedly been started by armed bands, which prevent firemen access to the sites.
It is today evident that the riots were started by elements linked to the criminal world, quite powerful in the area and taking advantage of political instability to settle scores. The assassination of an important crime boss, Aybek Mirsidikov (a.k.a "Black Aybek") is reported to have started the ongoing surge in criminal activity. However, it is thought that "external" forces are actually using criminal organizations as "contractors" to pursue their own goals. This reminds us of land property seizures that occurred following the ousting of president Bakiyev, some of them being carried out by fairly organized groups with violence. Today, it seems that the goal of those behind the resurgence in ethnic tensions and riots is to prevent the constitutional referendum planned later this month from taking place smoothly.
Tensions between Uzbek and Kyrgyz always existed in the Ferghana Valley, although they seldom triggered full fledged ethnic fighting (except in 1990), are deeply rooted. Several elements still fuel tensions between communities. First of all, alleged discrimination against the Uzbek in the administration, elected bodies and regarding population statistics are regularly put forward. Also, numerous Uzbek businessmen complain about racket by corrupted officials from a mainly Kirghiz bureaucracy. Finally, the issue of land, already evoked in an earlier article, also plays its part.
The fightings also had consequences in matters not directly linked to security. Due to unrest, supply of essential goods and services to the city has been brought to a halt for several days already, which led to the deterioration of the humanitarian situation there as well as to scarcity of food and water. Outside of Osh, mass exodus of ethnic Uzbek in neighbouring Uzbekistan is putting an additional stress on the already crowed (and unstable) Ferghana Valley.
Attempts by the police to quell the unrest have so far proved unsuccessful, mainly because it lacks number and adequate equipment. In order to reverse the course of events and restore order, the provisional government initiated a partial mobilization of the army and sent additional police forces in the South. Additionally, it has called for Russian intervention in the country to support the government, while non governmental organization called for the UN to intervene militarily to halt the fightings.
Kyrgyz forces patrolling the streets of Osh
(Credits: REUTERS/lemonde.fr)
Are we headed towards a Russian direct involvement?
Neighbouring countries and influential powers with interests in the region have so far refused to get involved directly, rather sending medical and humanitarian assistance. While Russia and the CSTO have refused to send armed support, it is unlikely that the US and NATO will further stretch a military apparatus already to its limits with a stability operation in Southern Afghanistan proving more challenging than initially planned. The SCO, which gathered on the 11th of June in a summit in Tashkent, for its part made no sign that it was ready to commit itself actively.
However, direct foreign military intervention cannot be discarded, should the provisional government be unable to restore order. Indeed, many neighbouring states cannot permit unrest to settle in. Uzbekistan is both concerned with Islamic radicals (and especially IMO militants) taking refuge in this region and ethnic Uzbek refugees flooding in from Kirghiz Ferghana. Neither can the US and NATO countries engaged in Afghanistan allow such a situation to develop near supply lines vital to their campaign in Afghanistan. China, on its side, is not ready to accept a grey zone where Uigur Islamic militants could one day take refuge. Finally, Russia cannot allow this part of what is still its backyard slide into anarchy.
Being the heir to the defunct USSR, Russia remains the main security provider for the States of the region, a role it has so far defended against its Chinese "partner", with whom competition on the economic field is impossible. By refusing (or being unable) to rescue an ally requesting assistance would send a very negative signal and prompt other powers to take Russia's place in the area. China could seize the opportunity to become the new security provider, while Uzbekistan may chose to intervene in an attempt to stop the persecutions and the uncontrolled flow of refugees.
Thus, it appears that Russia has not formally discarded military intervention, while it reinforced its troops in the country. Moscow is however likely to shun as much as possible any further risky military operation, given its experiences in Chechnya and Afghanistan. It will rather wait for threats of direct involvement and tougher actions taken by the Kirghiz interim government to give effects before moving in, preferably with strong multilateral legitimation by CSTO or even SCO. Yet the prospect for such a scenario might well vanish, as reports of riots turning into mere looting of abandoned buildings and businesses started to come from Osh recently.
Frontier guards of Uzbekistan helping ethnic Uzbek to flee Kyrgyzstan
(Credits: www.eurasianet.org)
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