"Silk railway" versus "Drug roads": prospects for the development of international transportation in Central Asia

View of the Almaty (Kazakhstan) - Urumqi (China) train

Although the Northern Distribution Network (NDN) is a military-oriented network, it is however linked to what some see as the resurrection of the ancient Silk Road. This collection of itineraries which linked China and Europe died-out after the discovery of America and the establishment of European supremacy on sea trade. This mythical trade route could however be revived by the interest shown for Central Asia since the fall of the USSR and the New York September 11 attacks.

The new Silk Road as a solution to Central Asia's problems

Today's Central Asia (including Afghanistan) is a region plagued by poverty and instability. The overall situation has deteriorated since the former soviet republics broke apart, and did not improve significantly despite NATO's involvement in the area. Among the many problems of the area  (of which the Ferghana Valley offers a good overview, though to a quite extreme level) poverty is among the most threatening for the stability of the area. Thus, local governments and other actors involved in the area (NATO, Russia, China, and to some extent India and Iran) have a stake in the stimulation of local and regional trade there.

One would not need to read once more Adam Smith's Wealth of Nation to see the advantages of increased trade activity of Central Asia.

- On the one hand, trade routes imply new economic opportunities for neighbouring communities. Today's drivers, like yesterday's traders, need water, food, and some resting place, while vehicles and hardware need fuel and maintenance. Palmyra yesterday, Osh and Kara Suu today extensively benefited from nearby trade routes, as much as they suffered from their disappearance.

 - On the other hand, an increase in trade implies an increase in currency movements, which are quite easy for a state to tax (something the author of Coercion and Capital would agree with). Should this increase benefit to the formal sector of the economy, this would certainly help the budget of States in dire need of funds.

A research paper released by the CSIS underlines the advantages of a significant increase in trade for the stabilization of Afghanistan. Should such an increase occur, the Afghans would find new opportunities to secure a steady income by providing goods and services to transporters. Using those newly-opened trade routes, they would also been able to sell their production to distant markets. Thus, no longer depending on the insurgency for their incomes and having an interest in the protection of trade routes, the civilian population would (in an ideal scenario) take an active part in the fight against non-reconcilable insurgents. Finally, increased tax revenue from an increased GDP would benefit the Afghan national government, who must step-up its security forces war-readiness despite having very few resources of its own. And excessive reliance on foreign funding does little good to its legitimacy...

Is a new Silk Road possible?

Since the Roman Empire, Central Asia has remained... central (at least from a geographical point of view. Its position make it a compulsory transit point for most transcontinental itineraries, and it offers good opportunities to link different regions of Asia (China, Indian sub-continent, Iran...). Furthermore, the area is criss-crossed by numerous railways (railways are far more developed than roads because of the importance of rail transportation under soviet rule) which are already used to transport non-lethal goods for NATO's campaign logistics in Afghanistan. Most obstacles to easy cross-border movements are less of material origin than human origin. Complex and conflictual boundaries, repetitive border closure resulting from diplomatic tensions, corruption and excessively complex procedures make it difficult for cross-border trade to thrive.

Inter-state rivalries are however not insuperable, and common interest for the development of trade and the stabilization of Afghanistan already prompted several regional partnerships, especially in the energy domain. Furthermore, numerous infrastructure projects (funded by the European Union, China, Japan or the Asian Development Bank) already demonstrated that an Eurasian trade corridor was no mere wishful thinking, but something considered possible by several States ready to fund such a project. However, this land trade route, though attractive, should not threaten the supremacy of sea trade regarding exchanges between the Far East and Europe. A question to be examined later on...